Given the limited production numbers expected for the Vision Pro, “it will be flying off the shelves, preordered by Apple’s loyal fans and high net-worth users in the US,” according to a new report from Canalys.
“The success of the first generation will give Apple and its supply chain precious feedback on product improvements. Meanwhile, industry players will accelerate investment, and cost-efficient solutions will emerge to increase Apple’s margin on the device,” Jason Low and Nicole Peng write for the research group. “In years two and three, the second Vision Pro will likely hit the market, achieving high growth from a low base. With a steady building up of the user base to a new computing platform and distribution channel, it will surpass 10 million annual shipments in years four and five, which is around 1% of the iPhone’s current installed base.”
The US$3,499 (and up) Apple Vision Pro was unveiled at this month’s Worldwide Developer Conference. However, it won’t go on sale until early 2024.
Other notes from the Canalys report:
° By calling the Vision Pro a spatial computing device, Apple positions the headset as the next computing platform rather than just an accessory related to the mobile or PC ecosystem.
° The Vision Pro is still a consumer-first device, despite its high price and the impression that it is mainly aimed at creators and businesses.
° The Vision Pro being a consumer consumption and productivity device means Apple must rely on its existing ecosystem to generate use cases unique to it. With content quality and user experience upgrades to match the capabilities of the Vision Pro, Apple’s content and services business flywheel is expected to grow stronger, making it challenging for competitors, especially those relying on third parties for content and services, to replicate what it is doing.